Futurist Author and Keynote Speaker Jack Uldrich

The Future of Relationships

My favorite commercial during yesterday’s Super Bowl was Google’s (which I have posted below). The reason I liked it is because it is a powerful reminder that technology doesn’t just light our future, it can also fundamentally change how—and with whom—we interact in personal relationships.

For a little historical perspective, consider this: Before the invention of the automobile your future spouse/partner was likely to come from within a 5-mile radius of where you lived; after the automobile was popularized the radius increased to roughly 100 miles. The invention of the airplane further increased the average distance; and the Internet, as Google’s commercial demonstrates, is, yet again, extending the distance.

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How Swede It Is. Recyclable Lights & Restful Nights

Researchers in Sweden, together with the help of some American scientists, are reporting a big breakthrough in new nanotechnology-enabled recyclable OLEDs. The development is significant for a couple of reasons. First, OLEDs (Organic Light Emitting Diodes)—which have the potential to create super cool, super-thin, wallpaper-like lights—are very expensive. Second, the material they currently use is difficult to recycle. Before OLED can take-off—like this lighting example from history—both issues will need to be addressed and this, it appears, is what the Swedish researchers have pulled off.

From a broader perspective, I’d ask you to consider how this new lighting paradigm might change how architects design the houses, buildings and hospitals of the future> More interesting still, such an advance could drive changes in human behavior. For example, what might happen if instead of being awakened by the rude sound of an alarm clock you could instead be gently awakened by your OLED wallpaper which mimics a rising sun? Alternatively, what if your difficult-to-put-to-bed child could be coaxed into falling asleep 30 minutes earlier because the walls in her bedroom dim like the setting sun?

The possibilities are virtually limitless. I’d love to hear your ideas.

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The Future Doesn’t Alway Require the “Big Fix”

Big problems such as health care, feeding the world and addressing climate change don’t necessarily require big solutions. In the 19th century, Ignaz Semmelweis helped save the lives of hundreds of thousands of women by getting doctors to wash their hands prior to assisting in the delivery of a new-born child. (Unfortunately, however, it still required the medical community nearly two decades to unlearn their stubborn and unhealthy habits.)

Alas, in the 21st century, the number of infections in hospitals remains unacceptably high. Why? Many healthcare professionals still aren’t employing good hygiene. If they were better at the simple act of washing their hands, the results would be impressive—on the order of saving thousands of lives annually and preventing billions of dollars in unnecessary costs.

In the field of agriculture, it was the addition of ammonium nitrate—a cheap but effective crop fertilizer—which allowed the world’s farmers to feed billions more people with the same land.

Continued advances in the field of genomics may also continue to increase the yield of corn, wheat and rice by making these crops more efficient in terms of how they utilize water and fertilizer. The result: More people can be fed using the same amount of land but with less impact on the environment.

In the automotive industry, it was the installation of the seat belt that saved the lives of thousands of motorists—even though the device was at first ridiculed as “inconvenient, costly, and just a bunch of damn nonsense” by auto executives. The next life-saving advance could be the introduction of super-strong, super-light nanomaterials.

As strange as it may sound, the problem of hurricanes may also just need a simple fix. As Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner outline in their delightful new book, Super Freakonomics, in may be possible to prevent costly hurricanes (which, since 2005, have inflicted an estimated $153 billion in damage to the United States alone) by deploying a few thousand “hydraulic heads” in those areas where hurricanes start. The devices work by bringing cooler water from the bottom of the ocean to the top thus cooling the surface temperature of the ocean water and preventing hurricanes from forming in the first place. The estimated cost: $1 billion.

On the bigger problem of climate change, Levitt and Dubner also outline the logic behind “Budyko’s Blanket”—a super high hose which would spew sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere—which could theoretically cool the planet for a mere $250 million.

Now, to be fair, both the “hydraulic heads” and “Budyko Blanket” may not work and serious questions remain on both ideas. But the broader point is that when faced with big problems there is absolutely no reason why we must first look to “big answers” as the solution. Often, big problems can be solved with small solutions. After all, as a child, how many of your cuts and bruises were solved with a tender kiss from your mother?

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Nanotechnology in 250 Words or Less

I was recently asked by a leading nanotechnology consultant, Rocky Rawstern, if I could say anything on nanotechnology to a wider audience but had to keep it under 250 words, what would I say. Here was my response:

To those who don’t believe nanotechnology will change the world in the near future just because it hasn’t accomplished much in the last 20 years, consider this little quiz: If a single lily pad began doubling on a pond on the first day of June and doubled each day thereafter until the entire pond was covered by the end of the month, on Day 20 what percentage of the pond would be covered with lily pads?

The answer is one-tenth of one percent. That’s right, .1%! What happens over the next 10 days is a little short of amazing--the entire pond gets covered. Such is the nature of exponential growth.

Now, advances in nanotechnology aren’t quite experiencing exponential growth but they are close and over the course of the next decade nanotechnology’s impact on material sciences, medicine, and energy are going to be--like the lily pads’ spread over pond in the last few days-- extraordinary.

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Technology Lights the Future

Today is the 130th anniversary of the installation of the first electric streetlight in Wabash, Indiana. At the time, it cost $100 to install the light. More interestingly, just a month later the city paid to have four more lights installed. The rest, as they say, is history as the electric light then proceeded to grow exponentially—like lily pads on a pond.

Today, a view of America at night looks like this picture to the right. I ask you to keep in mind this analogy of how “technology can light the future” when considering how rapidly advances such as robotics and smart dust may unfold once the technology reaches a commercially scalable level.

On a different level, you might also want to consider how the electric light changed people’s behavior. For one thing, the light allowed merchants and others to stay open later. Ultimately, it lead to such things as sporting events being played in the evening.

My point is this: When considering how technology expands you also need to consider how widespread adoption of technology might change people’s behavior. For example, continued advances in robotics might allow senior citizens to stay in their homes longer and have an adverse impact on the aging services industry. Similarly, the rapid proliferation of “smart dust” could make once unsafe neighborhoods suddenly safe and lead to more people living in certain urban environments.

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America’s Future: In One Word

This past weekend I read a fascinating interview with Peter Thiel—the co-founder of PayPal and the first investor in FaceBook—in Wired. The article was entitled The Utopian Pessimist.

What I liked about the article is that Thiel questions the assumption—trumpeted by many investors and fund managers—that the stock market will continue to post long-term increases in the range of 6-8%.

It is easy to fall into this trap because for the past 100 years an investment in equities has, in fact, yielded such a healthy return. There is no reason why, however, that this must continue to be the case moving forward into the future. As Nassim Taleb explains in his excellent book, The Black Swan, the future has a way of surprising everyone—and those surprises can be both pleasant and unpleasant.

For instance, what if the past 100 years were just a pleasant surprise? That is what if the 20th century was an anomaly and we were just lucky to have gone from horses and buggies to automobiles, rockets, computers and the Internet in a very short time? As Thiel says, “It’s not automatic that that progress continues.”

It isnt’! But if America wishes to maintain and, possibly even grow, its global position what must it do?

In a word: Innovate.

Earlier today, I explained how the rate of paradigm shifts is accelerating. This implies that an unprecedented amount of economic disruption is headed our way; but rather than be a source of only worry and consternation; farsighted entrepreneurs; investors and, hopefully, policy-makers will also recognize that it also represents a wonderful opportunity.

Advances in information technology promise to revolutionize media, publishing and education. Progress in biotechnology, stem cell research and regenerative medicine portend a glorious new age in preventative health care; and advances in nanotechnology and synthetic biology point the way toward a new, cleaner and, ultimately, more sustainable energy paradigm. (For an idea of the decade ahead, I invite you to review my predictions for 2010-2019).

Many of these developments, in turn, will either converge or spin-off in new and unexpected ways. To capture this promise, though, it is essential to develop an educational; entrepreneurial and political culture which encourages and rewards risk and innovation.

The future of tomorrow will move so fast that innovation is less a characteristic to aspire to and, instead, a trait that must be constantly used; honed and improved upon. In my book, Jump the Curve, I lay out 50 strategies for doing this but I’d like to share three here: 1) Think Like a Child; 2) Develop a Future Bias; and 3) Learn to Unlearn.

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The Future of Paradigm Shifts

In his book, The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil states that “the rate of paradigm shifts is accelerating” and, at the current rate, “doubling about every decade.” This is an extraordinary development.

To help put some perspective on the matter, consider the opening paragraph from L. Gordon Crovitz’s article (From the Roman Codex to the iPad) in today’s Wall Street Journal:

How’s this for human progress? It took about 4,000 years from the invention of writing to the Roman-era codex of bound pages replacing scrolls, 1,000 years from the codex to movable type creating printed books, 500 years from the printing press to the Internet--and only 25 years to the launch of the iPad.

What’s next? My personal opinion is that continue advances in flexible electronics will further change both how information is conveyed and how it is consumed.

But the broader point is that almost every other industry, including health care, energy, and manufacturing, will also experience faster changes in the rate of paradigm shifts. The really important question is this: Are you and your industry prepared?

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Medical Devices’ Innovative Future

Earlier today, I discussed why I feel Apple’s new iPad isn’t quite ready for the prime time. This is in spite of the exciting applications I believe it can—and will—bring to the healthcare sector. But in this post, I’d like to turn from external devices and instead look at the amazing opportunities which await internal devices and the medical device industry in general.

Two recent articles shed light on some future possibilities. First,the development of new piezoelectric nanoribbons have lead to the development of power-generating rubber films. One possibility is for these materials to be attached to medical devices thereby eliminating the need for batteries. Imagine, for example, a pacemaker that could harvest the mechanical energy from a beating heart or an expanding lung and translate that into electrical energy to power a pacemaker? At a minimum, the need to perform a surgical operation to replace the battery will be eliminated. On a larger scale, however, such an advance could also open a host of opportunities for medical devices.

Taken a step further the same technology could power an insect-like “microid” which could patrol the human body looking for, reporting on, and, ultimately, eliminating disease-causing agents. Such an idea may sound far-fetched to some but Japanese researchers have already created insect-sized robots that can move about inside the human body.

The bottomline is that the convergence of new nanomaterials; flexible electronics; smaller, faster and more powerful microprocessors; and advanced robotics portend a golden age of innovation within the medical device industry.

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iPad’s Foldable Future

Will Apple’s latest gadget, the iPad, become a commercial success? I don’t know. My personal guess is that it will be moderately successful in the short to mid-term. The applications for gaming, e-books and in the health care arena are all very promising and the developer community is sure to come up with some amazing (and yet-to-be imagined) “apps” for the device.

Longer-term, though, I believe the iPad will only be successful if it can transition to flexible electronics. Specifically, I think the device will need to be able to fold up and fit in a person’s pocket before it becomes a truly revolutionary device. Steve Job’s statement that the device fits a niche between the mobile phone and the laptop computer is correct, but he misses the broader point by not recognizing that this will soon be a false choice.

With the advent of flexible electronics, a single device should be able to morph into different objects depending upon need. (As Jobs said yesterday, “It’s phenomenal to hold the Internet in your hand.” It is but what I think people really want is the ability to hold the Internet in their hands and, afterwards, fold it up and put it away in their pocket or purse.)

I recognize that the technology does not yet exist (at least a commercially-scalable and affordable level) but it is coming as this visionary video from Nokia suggests:

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Think About the Future—By Asking Questions Today

As a professional futurist, I think about the future all the time. I realize that most people don’t have this luxury but I also don’t really believe that this trait is a “luxury.” If you want to succeed in the future, you must think about the future today.

I recently watched a wonderful 6-minute video on Seth Godin’s new book, Linchpin. The video consists of nothing more than a series of questions but many of them can be used to prompt your thinking about the future.

Here, for reading—and thinking—enjoyment, are some of the more pertinent questions:

1. What will you do when gas is $10 a gallon? (I would add the following question as well: What will you do when it is $1 a gallon?)
2. What will you do when electricity is free?
3. What will you do when computational power is a 1000 times more powerful?
4. Is it likely your organization will have the same products as bestsellers in 10 years?
5. Where will the replacements come from, and when?
6. If we got rid of textbooks, what would be the best way to replace them?
7. If you discovered your biggest competitor was successfully developing a product that reinvents the rules of your industry, what would you do?
8. Could you do the same thing if the competitor wasn’t about to do this?

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