In this highly provocative book, best-selling author, acclaimed global futurist and the iconoclastic “chief unlearning officer,” Jack Uldrich turns the world as you know it—or think you know it—on its head and makes the compelling case that unlearning will be the most critical skill for charting, navigating and, ultimately, conquering the brave, new world of the 21st century. Buy the Book
Bestselling Books By Jack Uldrich
Keynote Speeches with Jack Uldrich
Jack speaks to a variety of audiences about future trends, emerging technologies, innovation, change management and leadership.
In 1978, Congress was convinced the United States was running out of natural gas so it passed the Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act (FUA). A decade later the law was overturned as vast new sources of natural gas were found.
In 2003, the National Petroleum Council estimated North America might have 1.1 trillion cubic meters of renewable shale gas. Eight years later, Advanced Resources International reckoned there might be 50 times as much!
Both examples are stark reminders that predicting the future is a difficult, if not impossible, task and should keep industry experts humble as they consider how technological advances in renewable energies, synthetic biology and other unconventional supplies (such as frozen methane hydrate) might similarly impact the industry in the not-too-distant.
It is a message I intend to share with the senior executive leadership at Southern California Gas Company as I lead them through a strategic planning session in Los Angeles tomorrow.
Interested in related posts by energy futurist Jack Uldrich? Check this recent post for the utility industry:
Recently, I had a client who requested I come to help their organization think about the “deep future.”
After disabusing them of the wisdom of thinking about the “deep future” (looking out just a few years is hard enough), I responded that I could still help them meet their goals but I needed to do three things first:
#1: Ensure that they are seeing the present clearly. It never ceases to amaze me how many organizations are so obsessed with short-term goals and projects that don’t see or understand how their business has already changed today.
#2: Fully comprehend the trends shaping tomorrow. It is not enough to understand the technological trends (e.g. artificial intelligence, robotics, 3D printing, nanotechnology, biotechnology, genomics, and the Internet of Things (sensors), etc.), individuals must consider how these technological trends will also shift and influence demographic, cultural and societal norms.
#3: Open people’s mind to new “impossibilities.” To do this effectively requires a real unwillingness to let go of past assumptions, habits and beliefs about how the world of tomorrow can and will operate.
Here are three questions/exercises I use to cleave open people’s minds:
Engaging, entertaining, energetic and enlightening healthcare keynote speakers are difficult to find. As my own speaking schedule has expanded, I have found myself in the unpleasant position of having to turn away a number of speaking engagements. As a consequence, I’m frequently asked for other speakers I’d recommend.
Past Speaking Clients (Jack Uldrich) Verizon Healthcare/Telemedicine Summit The New York Health Care Association United Healthcare The Utah Hospital Association The Maine Hospital Association The Tennessee Hospital Association USC Division of Biokinesiology The Maryland Hospital Association The Iowa Healthcare Collaborative Allina Hospitals
“Beware of false knowledge, it is more dangerous than ignorance.” –George Bernard Shaw
Question #24: Do more people die jaywalking or in the crosswalk?
The answer is the crosswalk. The reason is because people are lulled into a false sense of security due to the allure of existing rules such as painted crosswalks and flashing signs. As a result, they don’t feel as compelled to pay close attention to the actions of others. When jaywalking people are under no such illusion and remain vigilant and fleet-of-foot.
This lesson is appropriate in today’s business environment in two important ways. First, too many business leaders and organizations are lulled into complacency by tradition, existing rules and the power of the status quo. Like the white painted lines on a crosswalk, the protection their market position or brand offers is often non-existent. Worse yet, much as the flashing lights and warning signs provide a false level of security to a pedestrian, the signals customers send businesses also offer illusionary protection against an accelerating future. The problem is that by the time a person or organization realizes the danger they are in, it is too late and they are run over.
Clayton Christensen in his excellent and now classic book, The Innovator’s Dilemma, provides numerous examples of industry leaders refusing to heed the oncoming sounds of new threats because they were so attuned to the needs of their best customers—customers who were primarily focused on incremental product improvements.
This purportedly safe approach (i.e. “the customer is never wrong”) left them vulnerable to new competitors who were willing to ignore existing rules and opted instead to jaywalk in the direction of those “risky” fringe customers. Overtime, the niche markets serving these small communities mature and the product features or capabilities which were initially only demanded by those on the fringe come to be seen as valuable to mainstream audiences. Unfortunately, by the time this becomes evident to the existing players, it is too late and they ceded the marketplace to an upstart company. Think about how IBM was caught flat-footed by the personal computer in the 1980’s; large book retailers by the Internet in the 1990s; and the music industry by digitalization in the first decade of the 21st century.
What’s next?
Industries destined to feel a similar affect in the future include the energy, gaming and manufacturing industries. Advances in nanotechnology are fueling startling advances in solar and fuel cell technology. These technologies, many of which are now expensive and limited in capability, don’t appear to represent much of a threat today but as they improve they will create a vastly more decentralized energy distribution network and transform the energy paradigm. If existing leaders in the energy sector ignore these signs they will be run over. The same is true with how hand-gesture and 3-D technology will transform gaming culture, and advances in 3-D printing are poised to lead to radical new manufacturing and supply chain distribution models.
What then is a person or organization to do? Jaywalk. That’s right. Break the rules. Doing so will not only make you more aware alert to the dangers around you, you are also likely to chart a quicker path to future customers.
Remember unlearning isn’t risky. What is risky is playing it safe.
Homework assignment #24: Did you know that 80 percent of people over the age of 40 still believe yield signs are yellow and black. They aren’t. They are red and white and have been since—drum roll, please—1971. With this analogy in mind, identify at least one area where the rules in your business are changing and explain how a supposedly risky strategy might actually be safer.
Over the past few months, I have delivered keynote addresses (on the topic of emerging trends) to a number of utility-related organizations across the country. In addition to covering technological advances in advanced batteries, fuel cell and solar technology, I explain how new business models are also fueling the trend toward decentralized, distributed energy.
On Wednesday, I was in Sioux Falls, South Dakota speaking to Missouri River Energy Services and I shared how SolarCity was now installing, maintaining and repairing solar cells on residential homes for no money down. In simple terms, SolarCity is making it very easy to say “yes” to solar cells by eliminating customer’s largest obstacle–the sizeable, upfront capital investment.
No sooner had I returned home than I came across yet another company doing the same thing, Sunrun. Sunrun, however, takes the matter one step further and, in a series of funny ads (posted below), shows viewers why there is absolutely no reason for them not to seriously consider becoming their own (partial) energy provider by installing solar panels.
As I said in my 2010 book, Green Investing, the future of “green” technology has less to do with the “greening” of the environment and more to do with the “green” color of money.
In 1978, Congress was convinced the United States was running out of natural gas so it passed the Power Plant and Industrial Fuel Use Act (FUA). A decade later the law was overturned as vast new sources of natural gas were found.
